Global demand and supply

Oil is expected to remain the most important fuel in the coming decades, even though its share of global energy use is declining and the share of renewable fuels is expected to increase. The International Energy Agency estimates that global energy requirements will increase by 1.5 percent per year up to 2030, partly due to the developing countries of Asia and the Middle East. The oil share of the total energy mix is estimated to decline from 34 to 30 percent until 2030.

Sources for oil market information:

What will affect the oil price?

1	The global economy A global recession suppresses demand for oil, while an economic boom stimulates demand. Moreover during the recession the least profitable projects are deferred and production is kept down. This was the case in autumn 2008 and in 2009.
2	OPEC Decisions on production levels by the oil cartel OPEC impact the oil price. In 2009 OPEC kept down production in order to stimulate the price.
3	Inventory levels Large national oil inventories result in a lower oil price, while inventory reductions tend to move the oil price upward.
4	Falling production Oil production from the increasingly aging oil fields of the world in declining. Developing new fields is becoming increasingly more difficult and more expensive, which will move the price of oil upward.
5	Political turbulence Conflicts in or between oil-producing countries may push up the oil price.
6	Weather and unforeseen events Demand for oil increases somewhat in the winter. Unforeseen events such as hurricanes, terrorist attacks, disasters and regime changes can occur.
7	Alternative energy sources The countries of the world are expected to make major public investments in renewable energy. A move to alternative energy sources could affect the oil price in the long term.